David Rodeback's Blog

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Monday, November 5, 2007
David's Little November 2007 Election Guide

How I voted (early), and the outcomes I predict in American Fork, Salt Lake City, and statewide in the voucher matter.

Utah School Vouchers

I say -- and this will surprise no one -- vote for vouchers, as in Citizens' Referendum 1. If you must vote against them, do it for an intelligent, honorable reason, not because you've been duped by a deceptive opposition campaign.

The only predictions I will venture as to the outcome tomorrow are these:

  • If vouchers fail, it will be by a much smaller margin than a recent Dan Jones poll suggested.
  • Vouchers will win in the Alpine School District, even if they don't win statewide.
  • If the referendum passes, anti-voucher lawsuits will be filed in state and federal courts before the end of the week, because the object is to win at all costs.

I have hopes for tomorrow's outcome, but I really don't know what final result to expect.

American Fork City Council

I voted early, and I voted for incumbents Dale Gunther, Sherry Kramer, Shirl LeBaron, and Rick Storrs.

The only alternative this year is Jason Porter, who seems like a good, intelligent man. But I look at his minimal campaign, and I doubt that he appreciates the work required of a challenger in order to win. I have related concerns that he may not fully appreciate the workload of a sitting city councilor. I look at the recent little flap about violent crime rates, in which Porter first made an erroneous statement, then severely overreacted when his error became public (in a rather inaccurate newspaper article), and I think that this candidate, though he has real potential, is not quite ready for prime time.

That said, I think he can get ready. He may make a very compelling candidate in two years or four. In the meantime, his skills and his willingness could find a very useful home somewhere in the City as a volunteer, if he is willing to put in the time in a less visible position than City Council.

I don't think he would make a bad city councilor if elected tomorrow. I just think we have better choices this time around.

My predictions: Gunther will win by acclamation; he's running unopposed. In the larger race, Storrs will finish first and somewhat ahead of the other two winners; this election hasn't demanded the hard-core campaigning that might have helped either of the other incumbents overtake him. Kramer and LeBaron will be close in the race for second, and I don't know which will win. It doesn't matter very much; they will both remain on the Council.

Porter will get a few hundred votes, but will not be close to the winners. Some of his votes will come out of raw anti-incumbent sentiment, including a handful from the kooks who (always) think the current officials are perpetrating some grand conspiracy. Some won't like the recent tax increases, necessary though they were. And many of his votes will come from people who know him, like him, and find him an honorable man. It will be a good start, if he wants to seek office in the future.

Turnout will be reasonably high in American Fork, pushed by the voucher issue, not by the relatively uninteresting city council campaign.

Salt Lake City

Turnout will be higher in Salt Lake City, where there is a good mayoral race -- at least, good in the sense that there is a race for an open seat, and there is some light to be seen between the candidates for a change. Democrat Ralph Becker will defeat Republican Dave Buhler handily, in what is technically a nonpartisan race. That doesn't bother me much, in part because Buhler hasn't impressed me. Also, I'm not sure Salt Lake City liberals could bear the psychic trauma if a Republican won, and I'm not sure Buhler would present advantages enough to justify the Left's trauma. Moreover, with the Left wigging out so relentlessly and pathetically in Washington, DC, a grand wig-out in Salt Lake City, fueled by a Buhler victory, really would add nothing important to my enjoyment of politics.

Oh, there's one other reason for my relative indifference: I don't live in Salt Lake City, even if I do sometimes comment on their politics.

Final Thought

However you vote tomorrow, vote tomorrow. Study first. Think first. Then vote tomorrow.

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